Articles: 99
27 Jul 2025, 21:57
Finance
Global equities like higher tariffs, the big macro week, Treasury financing, the FOMC meeting, lower breakeven inflation rates, earnings imply weak demand and margins
21 Jul 2025, 13:25
The collapse in inflation correlation, core growth slows further, the independence bruhaha, another Fed/Treasury Accord to stabilize government debt, bank policy
19 Jul 2025, 10:02
14 Jul 2025, 12:53
Fasten your seatbelts, inflation week, employment benchmark revision, the Fed's balance sheet and rate pivot, energy and financial earnings
12 Jul 2025, 10:01
07 Jul 2025, 15:04
OBBBA is not TCJA, Shaky Small Business Sector, Weak Employment Internals, the Rally Rolls On
04 Jul 2025, 12:12
01 Jul 2025, 20:00
Lower supply and continued weak demand, but probably not sufficiently soft enough for a July rate cut
30 Jun 2025, 13:04
The relentless rally, not so solid growth, Fed patience or obstinance, letting the dust settle, OBBBA, mercantilist currency policies
28 Jun 2025, 10:00
23 Jun 2025, 13:45
Still detoxing, softer consumption, another leg lower for housing, weak demand for labor, a sharp drop in core earnings growth and a Fed in transitory purgatory
21 Jun 2025, 10:02
16 Jun 2025, 12:25
Disinflation, not just despite, but perhaps because of tariffs, the FOMC is likely to fall further behind the curve, changing currency correlations suggest structural changes
14 Jun 2025, 10:11
09 Jun 2025, 12:59
Tariffs, Immigration and Spending reduces the demand for, and supply of labor. Our capex recovery thesis is intact, but Fed resuming rate cuts are on hold.
07 Jun 2025, 10:02
04 Jun 2025, 18:03
Business confidence, data lags & mismeasurement, small business struggles, wages cooling, bad is probably bad, for now
02 Jun 2025, 13:20
An unstable policy equilibrium, IEEPA and degrees of freedom, soft data hardens, hard data softens, setting Fannie and Freddie loose
31 May 2025, 10:01
27 May 2025, 13:26
Higher real rates, but far from a crisis. The House made 1BBBA marginally better, but spending is still too high. The Fed is behind the curve, asset allocation changes.
24 May 2025, 10:02
19 May 2025, 12:03
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary & fiscal phenomenon, not due to an import tax, the ominous outlook for the federal debt and deficits
17 May 2025, 10:02
12 May 2025, 12:58
As trade policy pessimism fades, the focus shifts to Congress and the Reconciliation Bill, and the sausage making process is particularly messy.
10 May 2025, 10:01
05 May 2025, 11:33
A capex boom that boosts margins and productivity is crucial for equities; it is still possible in 2H25 but fiscal, regulatory and monetary policy changes are necessary.
03 May 2025, 10:02
30 Apr 2025, 20:45
If the Fed waits for firing, it'll likely be too late to avoid a recession, though they are clearly not pulling all the business confidence levers.
28 Apr 2025, 13:23
Hayek's knowledge problem and the bond vigilantes were the catalysts for peak policy pessimism, but the economic fallout from the confidence shock begins this week.
26 Apr 2025, 10:01
21 Apr 2025, 13:26
The Powell Fed's policies have been procyclical since the pandemic, their current approach is increasing recession risk.
19 Apr 2025, 10:01
