Articles: 109
12 Sep 2025, 20:04
Finance
Crude prices rise despite generally weaker term structure amidst deeply oversold speculative positioning likely headed higher again following a flurry of geopolitical headlines.
11 Sep 2025, 17:25
Official OPEC production data indicates further output increases in line with accelerated cut unwind—though implied production estimates marked a slowdown—and group agrees to further hikes into 2026.
09 Sep 2025, 16:36
Chinese counter-economic stock-building and sanctions-related seaborne logistical woes are absorbing the arrival of surplus supply—at least for now.
05 Sep 2025, 20:12
Crude prices fall and futures curves sink as OPEC mulls further production hikes faster than expected while refined product market fortunes improve on a slew of lost processing capacity.
03 Sep 2025, 16:18
Continental production bounced back in June on fresh record-high US crude output and a rebound in Canada's oil sands while demand also saw exceptional strength on two-decade high US June demand.
29 Aug 2025, 20:18
Crude prices post small gain through final week of summer while diesel slipped into prompt contango for the first time this year and gasoline posted a final bout of strength to send driving season off
28 Aug 2025, 13:58
TMX has shifted Canadian crude flows west, entrenched China as Canada's second-largest crude export market, and rerouted flows away from recent growth markets like USGC refineries and re-exports.
22 Aug 2025, 20:00
Crude prices gained through the latter half of the week amidst escalating attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and a paring back of some speculative bearishness across the belly of the crude curve
22 Aug 2025, 13:18
Oil markets flipped back into deficit in June alongside fresh all-time high summer demand, but supply growth continues to outstrip demand on the year and balances continue to deteriorate.
20 Aug 2025, 16:19
A new report decomposing and contextualizing petroleum market positioning highlights, adding further texture to paper market realities beyond oil's physical fundamentals.
15 Aug 2025, 20:14
Crude prices sank lower amidst bearish forecasts as market awaits outcome of Trump-Putin deal, though downside pressure driven by heavy speculative selling.
12 Aug 2025, 18:21
OPEC+ crude output continued to rise in July, though gains continue to accumulate more slowly than do quota hikes.
08 Aug 2025, 20:08
Crude prices pulled back to their weakest level in months as US policy disposition—both tariffs and sanctions—shifts from supply-side tailwind to demand-side headwind for the oil market.
05 Aug 2025, 14:15
Continental production fell in May on Canadian oil sands maintenance and wildfire shut-ins, while US gasoline demand weakness—compared to very strong 2024 levels—weighed on North American consumption.
01 Aug 2025, 20:07
Crude prices rose on sanctions risks before collapsing again on tariffs risk and weak economic data, while backwardation strengthened more durably and the diesel bubble finally burst.
31 Jul 2025, 14:48
How barrels produced in Canada are blended and transformed into the hydrocarbon supply mix that actually hits the North American oil market.
25 Jul 2025, 19:54
Crude prices grinded lower amidst a second consecutive week of term structure weakening, yet more trade policy headline ping pong, and a move by the Trump admin to loosen Venezuelan oil sanctions.
23 Jul 2025, 14:28
Oil markets tightened in May despite notable stateside demand weakness while June looks caught between strengthening Chinese demand and the realization of OPEC output hikes.
18 Jul 2025, 19:58
Crude prices and term structure weakened despite a spate of drone attacks on Iraqi Kurdish oilfields and the latest round of EU sanctions against Russia—but diesel still managed to end higher.
15 Jul 2025, 16:57
OPEC+ crude output jumped in June and made up for sluggish May output gains while official quota-cheating is now a Kazakh-only problem and Saudi confirms higher June "production" vs "supply to market"
11 Jul 2025, 20:11
Crude prices rose amidst renewed geopolitical tumult, now with a focus on potential Russian sanctions, and ever-stronger spot market pressures alongside seemingly ever-shorter diesel supplies.
10 Jul 2025, 16:06
The producer group is now set to wind up its latest and largest production cut tranche as soon as September—but there will still be ~3.6 MMbpd of additional, withheld oil left on the books.
04 Jul 2025, 20:01
Crude prices edged higher on firmer term structure and US trade deal optimism while middle distillates, like diesel, continue to be the epicenter of current market scarcity and concern.
03 Jul 2025, 19:30
Continental production pulled back in April on seasonal Canadian oil sands output declines, while US crude production began to stall out and demand across all three countries strengthened.
27 Jun 2025, 20:16
Crude prices plummeted and the belly of the curve once again sank into contango as the Iran risk bubble popped, while prompt spreads strengthened further as tight markets persisted despite all odds.
26 Jun 2025, 14:10
Oil markets weakened further into the largest supply surplus in ~2 years in April— though much of that ended up in quasi-strategic Chinese stocks, which blunted the price effect of those builds.
20 Jun 2025, 20:03
Crude prices attempted to find their comfort level amidst back the Israel-Iran headline rollercoaster, while futures curves steepened into backwardation and diesel starkly outperformed.
20 Jun 2025, 15:53
Current oil market context, three scenarios for Israel-Iran oil risk, and why Israel—not Iran—will likely decide the next stage of conflict escalation.
17 Jun 2025, 13:56
OPEC+ crude output rose in May, but Great 8 production increased by barely more than one-third of pledged 411 kbpd quota hike.
13 Jun 2025, 20:39
Israeli strike on Iran upends crude market, shifts focus from gradually and organically improving fundamentals to geopolitical tail risk.
12 Jun 2025, 15:34
The current shape of the crude oil futures curve is extremely rare and simply cannot last.
06 Jun 2025, 20:04
Crude prices recovered to around their highest level since April as speculators returned to the barrel, while the rise and fall of Western Canadian wildfire concerns drove WTI term structure.
![Canadian Barrel Goes [Further] Global](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Z8Ur!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8c4d39a8-7218-4c2d-a06a-5b52778343da_4749x2711.png)
