Articles: 429
29 Aug 2025, 13:36
Finance
If you want to govern as a Big Man, you've got to weed out the unreliable little men. The first one to stop clapping was probably the most independent thinker in the group.
28 Aug 2025, 12:12
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27 Aug 2025, 21:06
Monthly Strategy Report
27 Aug 2025, 13:10
What is the most likely catastrophe we are likely to face...and how can we protect ourselves? For an answer, we turn to today's real-life, in real-time catastrophe, playing out in Gaza.
26 Aug 2025, 12:47
Argentina had been one of the world's richest countries. But by the third decade of the 21st century, the Peronists — who governed Argentina for almost 80 years — had run out of other people's money.
25 Aug 2025, 12:32
One day, when the Dow/Gold ratio falls to 5, stocks will be a bargain again. Then, investors will be disgusted by stocks, not enchanted by them. That's the dip we want to buy.
24 Aug 2025, 16:06
Hello! A reminder that I will be joining Matt Smith on a Substack live stream tomorrow, Monday, at 10am EST to discuss The Preparation, the new book by Doug Casey, Matt and Matt's son Maxim Smith.
23 Aug 2025, 16:49
22 Aug 2025, 21:54
Don't be fooled by the allocation out of one expensive asset class into an even more expensive asset class. Bonds suck. And stocks are dangerously over-valued.
22 Aug 2025, 12:57
We humans fall off the ledge the day we are born. And every bubble. Every human life. Every empire. And every paper currency ends the same way.
21 Aug 2025, 12:42
Saying is one thing. Doing is another. A trade deal, procured under duress, is not likely to be more valuable than intel gotten by torture.
20 Aug 2025, 21:16
Delete those stop loss orders you entered with Fidelity and begin tracking your stops yourself. Besides, we're not using stop losses on our shipping positions for the time being.
20 Aug 2025, 12:22
With Trump as fund manager, it will be invested in the most promising and critical industries. It will rebuild industry, create good-paying jobs, and keep us from being an industrial backwater.
19 Aug 2025, 12:42
If there is a crash, you can count on the Fed to lower interest rates. It is still committed to backing the Wall Street party, by putting more gin in the punch bowl when necessary.
18 Aug 2025, 12:34
With the tariffs, the Trump team is retesting the notion that central planning can do a better job of making trade decisions than individual buyers and sellers with skin in the game.
16 Aug 2025, 16:12
15 Aug 2025, 22:22
While we've never seen anything exactly like this degree of over-valuation and over-concentration in a few large stocks, it's the SORT of thing you always see near the end of a manic cycle.
15 Aug 2025, 12:59
Every group is entitled to its own fantasies...its vanities and its lunacies. They are condensed in slogan form, easy for the masses to remember.
14 Aug 2025, 12:10
We see what is, not what could be, or ought to be, or will be. A man takes a vacation to Milan, and misses the sights in Paris.
13 Aug 2025, 21:45
If Putin and Trump strike a deal, this Dark Fleet arrangement could end and the market would have to price in a completely new environment for oil shipping.
13 Aug 2025, 12:25
Even in a consensual democracy, the yoke of a police state never entirely disappears, but it is light...and controlled by accepted rules. We all drive on the right...and get where we are going.
12 Aug 2025, 13:10
POTUS seems to be making good on whatever promises he made in exchange. He keeps sending US weapons and money to Israel. But his 'base' is becoming uncomfortable.
11 Aug 2025, 13:03
Big Men think Big. And as with Louis 14th's Versailles, or Mussolini's Coloseo Quadrato, their projects signal the majesty of their creators...but not necessarily their good taste.
09 Aug 2025, 13:02
08 Aug 2025, 22:53
The top 10% of American companies by market cap have grown to be worth 76% of the ENTIRE value of the market. The previous high was 73% in the dot.com boom.
08 Aug 2025, 12:40
The path to bankruptcy and financial chaos is well signposted and well-trod. The Big Man did not discover it. He merely stayed on it.
07 Aug 2025, 12:51
More than half of the stock market wealth is unsupported by real output. The total market cap of US stocks is around $60 trillion. Look for a $30 trillion loss when the bubble finally deflates.
06 Aug 2025, 21:26
After much consideration — and two very strong days for our shipping investments this week — I've decided to put 10% stop losses on all nine positions to lock in the gains we've made.
06 Aug 2025, 12:45
The numbers do not at all mean what most people think they mean. But at least they were supposed to be misleading on a non-partisan basis...giving false signals to both Republicans and Democrats alike
05 Aug 2025, 12:59
So much investment has gone into AI that anything less than spectacular results will look like failure. One estimates is that the Mag 7 would have to make $600 billion in revenue to make sense.
04 Aug 2025, 21:58
Monday, August 4th 2025
04 Aug 2025, 12:24
Central planning is always a mistake, in the sense that it makes most people worse off. It is not a mistake for those who do the planning. The feds and their cronies get more money and more power.
