NFL Playoff Picture Week 13: Bears Lead NFC, Broncos & Patriots Top AFC

Every game matters at this point in the season as teams fight for playoff position and chase division titles

As the NFL regular season approaches its final stretch in Week 13, the battle for playoff positions and division titles intensifies. Several teams are jockeying for seeding, with key matchups influencing the potential postseason landscape. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the latest NFL playoff picture, highlighting team odds, performances, and the critical games that are shaping the division races and wild-card berths.

Key points:

Comprehensive NFL playoff picture after Week 13

NFC Standings and Outlook

• Chicago Bears (9-3): Riding high after a strong victory over the Eagles and benefitting from the Panthers’ upset, the Bears currently top the NFC standings. They hold a 30% chance of winning the NFC North, with an important upcoming matchup against the Green Bay Packers.
• Los Angeles Rams (9-3): Despite Matthew Stafford’s record-setting streak of consecutive touchdown passes without an interception, the Rams’ defense struggled against the Panthers in Week 13, leading to a narrow 31-28 loss. This defeat dropped their chances of securing the NFC’s top seed to 42%. Their cornerback weaknesses have been exploited recently, complicating their pursuit of a first-round bye.

• Philadelphia Eagles (8-4): Struggling recently with two consecutive losses, the defending Super Bowl champions have seen their odds for the No. 1 NFC seed plummet to 10%. They remain firmly in control of the NFC East but face challenges ahead.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5): Despite a recent losing streak, the Bucs snapped it with a victory over the Cardinals and maintain dominance in the NFC South. They possess a 73% probability to reach the playoffs, although offensive injuries have hampered consistency.

• Seattle Seahawks (9-3): The Seahawks’ defense has been a strong point, demonstrated by a Week 13 shutout against the Vikings. However, offensive inconsistencies, especially in the running game and quarterback performance, leave questions as they tackle a competitive NFC West.

• Green Bay Packers (8-3-1): Favored to take the NFC North with a 66% probability, the Packers face a critical upcoming game against the Bears that could decide the division.

• San Francisco 49ers (9-4): Despite injuries to key players including Nick Bosa and tight end George Kittle, the 49ers have maintained a high chance (94%) of making the playoffs. Challenges remain with a struggling run game, but contributions from lesser-known players and special teams have kept them competitive.

AFC Standings and Outlook

• Denver Broncos (10-2): Boasting nine consecutive wins, the Broncos hold a commanding 84% chance to win the AFC West and recently overtook the Patriots for the No. 1 seed after a hard-fought overtime victory. Their defense, led by coordinator Vance Joseph, has been instrumental.

• New England Patriots (10-2): With a two-game division lead and a head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo, the Patriots are on the verge of clinching the AFC East. They hold the highest probability (55%) among all AFC teams to secure the No. 1 seed.

• Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4): Leading the AFC South after defeating the Titans, the Jaguars have an 83% chance of making the playoffs. Despite some inconsistency and turnovers, their defense and offensive potential keep them in strong position.

• Baltimore Ravens (6-6): Despite a recent setback losing five turnovers in a loss to the Bengals, the Ravens lead the AFC North due to Steelers’ missteps, maintaining a 71% playoff chance. Lamar Jackson's recent performance dip and reduced rushing threat have raised concerns.

• Los Angeles Chargers (8-4): Positioned as a wildcard contender, the Chargers face a difficult schedule ahead. Though they have a favorable 63% chance to make the playoffs, catching Denver for the division remains unlikely.

• Indianapolis Colts (8-4): Following a narrow loss to the Texans and the injury of star defensive back Sauce Gardner, the Colts’ rushing and offensive production has slowed. They are still viewed as likely playoff participants but face a tough schedule.

• Buffalo Bills (8-4): While their hopes of overtaking the Patriots in the AFC East are slim, the Bills remain likely to earn a postseason berth with an 89% chance. Recent losses and offensive turnovers continue to challenge the team.

• Houston Texans (7-5): Riding a resurgence marked by strong defense led by DeMeco Ryans, the Texans have boosted their playoff odds to 61%. Offensive efficiency has improved thanks to strategic personnel shifts.

• Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6): Amid struggles at quarterback and offensive inefficiency, the Steelers’ playoff chances have declined to 28%, with an upcoming critical game against division rival Baltimore.

• Kansas City Chiefs (6-6): The Chiefs’ recent loss at Thanksgiving dropped their playoff odds to 39%. Being four games behind Denver in the division, their path to the title is difficult.

In-depth analysis of divisional races and recent performances

NFC West: The Rams face renewed challenge from rivals

NFC South: Buccaneers maintain lead but challenges loom

AFC South: Jaguars embrace volatility

AFC North: Ravens vs. Steelers in a developing rivalry

Outlook for playoff-contending teams and remaining schedule impacts

With five weeks left in the regular season, every game holds significant weight in shaping the playoff field. Teams like the Broncos and Patriots have established themselves at the top, but other divisions remain highly competitive, featuring multiple teams with legitimate postseason aspirations.

The wild-card picture is crowded, with several teams like the Chargers, Colts, Bills, Texans, and Steelers battling for limited spots. Injuries, turnovers, and roster depth will continue to play decisive roles down the stretch.

In conclusion, the 2025 NFL season is a striking example of parity and unpredictability, creating a thrilling final phase with meaningful games and rivalries that will captivate fans until the playoffs begin.