Frontpage
Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.
Articles: 58
19 Feb 2025, 00:43
Politics
It probably won't work. But I'm yet another man with a plan.
17 Feb 2025, 19:38
By one important measure, they performed better than ever. By another, they had their worst year yet. The truth is somewhere in between.
17 Feb 2025, 19:37
The June 2024 version of the Silver Bulletin pollster ratings we used for our 2024 presidential election forecast.
17 Feb 2025, 19:35
All the numbers for every pollster, fully updated after 2024.
13 Feb 2025, 19:39
Two fundamental problems constrain the business model of the "digital town square."
09 Feb 2025, 14:36
You can be pro-capitalism or anti-oligarch, but the middle ground won't persuade voters.
08 Feb 2025, 18:26
After a tumultuous trade deadline, which teams are most likely to win titles over the next 10 seasons?
04 Feb 2025, 16:34
Why he's picking on Canada and Mexico — and why he's playing a dangerous game.
02 Feb 2025, 16:14
What does the most shocking trade of my lifetime reveal about the new Lakers superstar?
31 Jan 2025, 18:14
Plus, why has Georgia stayed relatively blue? And who holds the cards in Trump vs. Elon?
27 Jan 2025, 23:26
After the election, the timelines are accelerating. We need a pluralistic debate about its implications — but the left is dealing itself out.
26 Jan 2025, 19:41
From constitutional crises to Mars and back again.
23 Jan 2025, 00:39
Or will the vibe soon shift back to the left?
20 Jan 2025, 01:57
He made a triple devil's bargain: with the pandemic, his age, and a Democratic Party that can't get its priorities straight.
16 Jan 2025, 19:08
We asked pollsters what went wrong — and right — in 2024, and what's in store for 2026.
13 Jan 2025, 19:05
Ichiro, of course. But then the choices get harder.
08 Jan 2025, 18:10
"Fact-checkers" as the high priests of journalism had a political beginning at Facebook — and have met a political end.
06 Jan 2025, 13:57
A call for a pluralistic approach to Cooperstown.
31 Dec 2024, 03:32
Even in a good year, we didn't get everything right.
26 Dec 2024, 23:40
Including my Vegas hotel tiers and restaurant recommendations. Plus, advice for young poker players. Is the poker dream dead?
23 Dec 2024, 22:27
The subway has problems but remains an incredibly popular means of transit.
20 Dec 2024, 17:17
Were efforts to conceal Biden's age-related decline a "conspiracy"?
17 Dec 2024, 16:13
Donald Trump and Elon Musk's plan would literally make the average American's life darker.
14 Dec 2024, 17:51
Running the numbers on the largest contract in baseball history.
11 Dec 2024, 18:30
In a two-party system, the party coalitions are full of contradictions — and the Democrats' are becoming more obvious.
06 Dec 2024, 19:37
From Diet Woke to Brat Summer to ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
03 Dec 2024, 17:54
Part 1 of a 3-part autopsy on the Harris campaign. Plus, a GiveDirectly fundraiser!
02 Dec 2024, 16:52
Hunter Biden's pardon is another log on the fire.
26 Nov 2024, 20:00
Plus, what might change in the model for 2028. And prediction markets: lucky or good?
22 Nov 2024, 18:03
My 7 tips for a successful Substack.
19 Nov 2024, 23:59
Democrats ignored the polls at their peril.
15 Nov 2024, 17:38
Trump's win is mostly Biden's fault, not hers. Still, she was a mediocre candidate in a year when Democrats needed a strong one.